Norwalk, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

188
FXUS63 KDMX 012350
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
550 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering light snow to freezing drizzle mainly in
  east/northeast Iowa, before drying through this evening across
  central Iowa.

- A chance (<20%) for light snow for northern Iowa Monday night
  into early Tuesday, with possible accumulations under an
  inch.

- Dry conditions Tuesday and beyond with temperatures near to
  below normal early in the week, then above normal by
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Winter weather in the form of light snow continued to track eastward
across Central Iowa through the day, which overall produced
accumulations up to an inch, highest in northern Iowa. Specifically,
Waterloo and Garner reported 1 inch this afternoon, while at the WFO
and DSM airport, values were reported at 0.1`` and 0.2``
respectively. Since then, as the elevated frontal boundary tracks
into eastern Iowa, remaining light snow has largely ended west of I-
35, with otherwise limited reports of snow at Ottumwa and Iowa Falls
from observations as of this writing. Radar returns though however
remain further west over much of the I-80 interstate, but are rather
light and not producing any precipitation at the surface. In terms
of freezing drizzle today, have only seen a few reports in far
southern Minnesota, as well as some reports of fog/mist that could
at times have been freezing drizzle over northern Iowa, but have not
seen any impacts at the surface regarding any ice accumulations.
This is likely due to the already treated roadways that became
partially covered over these areas due to the snow earlier in the
day. A closer look at surface features shows the lagging surface
boundary just arriving into Iowa, noted by the winds shifting
northwest over western Iowa, which will pass through the rest of
this afternoon to evening. Considering lingering low level
saturation over the eastern part of the forecast area into the early
evening per model guidance, any remaining potential for light snow
and/or freezing drizzle would be more likely in these areas, before
dry air overtakes the entire area through the evening hours. Any
additional snow accumulations up to a dusting in the east is
expected at most, but with already treated roadways as mentioned,
should limit any notable impacts. Otherwise, temperatures warmed
nicely through the day given the warm air advection into the state,
with values as of 2pm through the 30s in the southwest where skies
are clear and in the 20s elsewhere. These values may increase a
degree or so in some spots, before nightfall drops temperatures
down into the low to mid teens northeast and in the upper teens
to low 20s southwest.

An area of ridging into Monday morning will lead to the arrival of a
brief period of drier air overhead, resulting in a quiet start to
the work week, as highs are expected to reach the 30s southwest and
in the 20s northeast. While surface high pressure begins to descend
into the Upper Midwest, guidance also shows a shortwave within the
larger scale flow scooting just southeast into the region by Monday
evening into early Tuesday. A look at soundings over this time
period does indicate saturation occurring through the column, along
with a relatively broad area of lift through the DGZ over northern
Iowa that would indicate the potential for snowfall over this area.
Therefore, have added in some low PoP mentions (around 15-20%) in
northern Iowa for this forecast cycle and will have to adjust as
needed based on future trends on guidance over the next few forecast
cycles. Snowfall amounts at this time look to generally be below an
inch, ending before sunrise as the forcing essentially shuts off.
Slick conditions from the snow over this area may lead to hazardous
travel through the Tuesday morning commute.

The aforementioned Canadian surface high pressure descending
into Iowa then descends over the region through Tuesday,
especially into the afternoon/evening with the return of drier
air overhead, with temperatures just a bit lower than previous
days in the upper teens to mid 20s northeast and in the upper
20s to low 30s southwest. By midweek, a growing thermal ridge
and associated large area of surface high pressure is expected
to gradually move eastward into the Central Plains, but will be
slow to do so as yet another subtle and even weaker feature
quickly passing just ahead of it, moves into the region
Wednesday. Very limited moisture and forcing with this however
keeps confidence quite low on anything reaching the ground, so
at this time have kept with a dry forecast and will keep an eye
on this. Otherwise, the main story through the mid-late work
week will be the gradual arrival of above average temperatures
paired with dry conditions over the region as the thermal ridge
influences at least the western portions of the Midwest.
Temperatures will be comfortable for February, especially
Thursday as highs are expected to soar through the 40s for most
areas but the northeast, though will reach above freezing in
these areas still in the upper 30s. Further north and east, an
area of low pressure circulating over southern Canada is
suggested to pass across the Great Lakes into Friday, with
another period of at least low chances of precipitation well
north and east of Iowa, leading to continued dry weather. The
larger trough in relation to the surface feature also brings
with it an area of much colder air, though generally remaining
north and east of Iowa into the weekend. The region will
otherwise remain in low level northwest flow, with a broad area
of high pressure expected to arrive Saturday that should
continue to streak of drier conditions overhead. Temperatures
will remain mild in the 30s to low 40s southwest and in the
upper 20s to mid 30s northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Widespread MVFR cigs are across Iowa early this evening. There
is also an area of IFR cigs and patchy freezing drizzle over
northeast Iowa. That may reach KALO early in the period. While
there could be a brief period of VFR cigs as it moves south from
Minnesota, additional MVFR cigs remain upstream. Any improvement
Monday remains uncertain but given the broad area of stratus and
early February stratus climatology, MVFR cigs will likely
persist much of the day. The wind will be turning west then
northwest tonight and will remain mostly below 12 kts.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Donavon